RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE
Dated sources, clear distinctions and useful context. Research reviewed 14 November 2026; no live price feed is implied.
Johnson Matthey’s May 2026 view puts palladium on course for a possible small surplus, with lower demand and renewed recycling activity. That outlook remains a forecast rather than an observed year-end balance.
Planning implication: test sensitivity to availability, scrap flows and vehicle demand rather than relying on one market scenario.
Johnson Matthey · PGM market outlook →14 May 2026The September 2026 Palladium Standard explores US autocatalyst recycling and the influence of legislation, technology and recovery losses.
Planning implication: collection and processing losses belong in a recovery discussion. The planner models one selected recovery percentage; it does not predict plant performance.
Heraeus · The Palladium Standard →September 2026 editionUSGS identifies catalytic converters as a principal palladium use, alongside electronics, chemical processes, dental alloys and other applications.
Planning implication: evaluate each use separately. A broad PGM application is not automatically a palladium growth market.
USGS · Palladium applications and supply →2025 report, outlook through 2029Heraeus describes Circlear using a mass-balance approach. This should be distinguished from physical segregation of individual recycled atoms in a delivery.
Planning implication: procurement specifications should state the evidence and accounting method required. This website certifies no material.
Heraeus · Circlear methodology →Undated; reviewed 14 November 2026HOW TO READ THE EVIDENCE
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